Overview:

The credit crisis created turmoil in the global container transportation industry. In all sectors, shipping lines, ports, terminals, hinterland transportation and related sectors, companies suffered substantial volume and revenue losses, resulting in profitability coming under pressure. Unconventional measures had to be taken to live through the turmoil.

This study presents new forecasts, trends and scenarios from a post-crisis perspective. In addition, the lessons learnt from the crisis are being described and analysed and ways are presented to be better prepared to possible future crises. Future changes in container terminal management are assessed.

The following issues are examined in depth in this new study from Ocean Shipping Consultants:

• Detailed forecasts container port demand

• Assessment of the future health of the container shipping industry

• Forecast current and future vessel sizes by trade and region

• The implications of the New Panamax vessel dimensions

• The impact of the forecasts on container terminals

• Overview of the most compelling post-crisis trends

• Assessment of the long-term impact of the crisis

• Ways to be better prepared for new crises

• Measures to build more robustness in revenue streams

• Ways of making the costs of container terminals more flexible

• How to develop effective marketing strategies to improve competitive positions

• Assessing the real risk of losing customers

• Insight to the real costs and commercial considerations of shipping lines, when selecting a port or terminal of choice

• Strategies to compete in transshipment markets

• Future changes in port and container terminal management in the post-crisis era

OSC and their associates have unrivalled expertise in the container terminal and port sector and can bring together objective appraisals of demand growth with specific experience in the field of terminal marketing and management, operations and development. This new study condenses this experience and provides an essential guide to all those currently running, expanding or planning to develop new container terminals.

Key specialists in these fields have prepared the study and it is designed as a tool for those involved in developing and managing existing and greenfield ports and container terminals in an increasingly competitive environment.

Part One - Driving Forces Shaping the Market after the Downturn
The outlook for the container market is highly uncertain. Projecting the pace of future demand growth and projected volumes has become highly problematic. The shipping market remains in deep crisis and it is likely that there will be considerable changes in ownership in this sector. At the same time a size-based technical revolution is underway in the container shipping business. All of these factors will combine to make terminal development and planning a much more complex undertaking.

The major issues and driving forces facing the market – and the impact of the recent demand contraction – are considered in detail.

1 Introduction

2 What has actually happened to demand since 2008?
    The relation between GDP and demand growth
    Historic parallels of recovery after crises
    Conclusions for the current recovery

3 The shipping crisis and container terminal effects
    Development of container freight rates
    Container fleet development
    Forecast container fleet supply / demand
   Market outlook and container terminal implications

4 Container shipping size developments
   How large will container vessels become?
   Current and future vessel sizes by trade and region
   Terminal handling capacity issues
   The implications of New Panamax dimensions

5 Forecast container port market development
   Economic scenarios to 2020
  Detailed forecasts of container port demand to 2020
  Detailed forecasts of port transshipment demand to 2020

Part Two - Container Terminal Management
The crisis revealed new issues for the management of container terminals and ports to address. Future container terminal management will need adjustments of current commercial, financial and operational strategies. The study provides a detailed assessment of these issues and provides tools for those involved in the sector.

Part II of the study is structured as follows:

1 Trend update: the long term impact of the credit crisis
    Pre-crisis trends
    Impact of the crisis
    Trend update
   The road to recovery

2 How to be better prepared for the next crisis
   Lessons from the credit crisis
   Strategies for preparing and managing the next crisis

3 Building revenue robustness
   Strategic measures
   Marketing techniques
- Pricing
- Service delivery
- Intensive selling
   Contractual means
4 Making terminal costs more flexible
  The cost distribution of a container terminal
  Strategies for making costs more flexible
  Reducing terminal costs during times of crisis

5 How to make a comparative port cost analysis
   Container handling charges
   Built-up shipping costs
   Port dues and shipping charges
   Hinterland transportation costs
   Total built-up costs per container
   Sensitivities

6 Assessing the real risk of losing customers
   Port selection
   Cost components and revenue risks
   Base case calculations
   Scenario analyses
   Assessment of switching risks
   Further considerations

7 Competing for transshipment volumes
    Transshipment markets
    The transshipment supply chain
    Built-up logistic costs
    Competing for transshipment volumes

8 Post-crisis port and container terminal management
Future changes in:
   Commercial management
   Financial management
   Operational management