Overview:
1. The prosperity index of the fertilizer industry was 47.3 in 2008, falling to 33.8 in Q4, hitting the bottom of 29.4 in Q1 2009, and 30.7 is expected for the whole year of 2009 and a rally to 39 in 2010.
2. Factors Conducive to Development of the Fertilizer Industry (Opportunities):
The Government raised comprehensive subsidy from 63.8 billion yuan in 2008 to 71.6 billion yuan in 2009for agricultural raw materials in order to support agricultural development;
Fertilizer price fell significantly from same period last year, and the substantial growth of the ratio between grain and fertilizer is conducive to mobilize farmers to purchase more fertilizer;
As the largest producer of coal in the world, China has abundant supply of coal and natural gas, and global surplus of sulphur provides affluent raw material for domestic fertilizer production.
3. Negative Factors to the Development of the Fertilizer Industry (Threats):
The growth of grain production in 2008 was faster than previous estimate, and the slowing down of the growth of grain production in 2009 would result to slowing down of the growth of fertilizer demand;
The growth of fertilizer production is faster than the growth of consumption, hence there is threat from climbing stock;
Threat of insufficient raw material supply due to reduction of production of pyrite and phosphorus ore;
Threat of resource waste and abandoning of outdated capacity due to surplus production capacity of fertilizer;
Decline of growth of fertilizer sales revenue from same period last year;
Falling of gross profit margin due to decline of fertilizer price and slowing down of growth of total profit.
4. Potash fertilizer among the fertilizers enjoys the best prosperity index, and as the domestic largest producer of potash fertilizer, Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co., Ltd. witnesses around 70% of gross profit and enjoys a bright prospect.
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